The 2025 Atlantic menhaden stock assessment updates connect menhaden harvest directly to the health of marine predators; ASMFC projections suggest cutting commercial catch limit by half

If you fish the Atlantic coast for striped bass, bluefish, or bluefin tuna, here’s the truth: your success depends on Atlantic menhaden. These small forage fish fuel the predators sought by recreational anglers and charter businesses, as well as whales, dolphins, ospreys, and many other species integral to a thriving food web.  

Last week, the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission released the 2025 Atlantic Menhaden Ecological Reference Point Stock Assessment Report, which sets the stage for how Atlantic menhaden will be managed for the next few years. The update indicates that the coastwide menhaden biomass is lower than previously estimated and resulting projections now suggest that slashing the coastwide catch limit by more than 50 percent may be necessary to ensure sufficient forage for striped bass rebuilding. 

What Are ERPs & Why Do They Matter?

This latest benchmark stock assessment and peer review process for Atlantic menhaden uses ecosystem modeling to establish ecological reference points (ERPs) — clear, science-based limits that tie menhaden harvest directly to predator health. Unlike traditional single-species models that only measure the health of one species (how many fish there are, how fast they grow, how many are caught, etc.), ERPs explicitly weigh the tradeoffs between menhaden harvest and predator population outcomes — especially for striped bass. These numbers are our best tool to keep striped bass (also known as rockfish) and other sportfish thriving by ensuring they have adequate food left in the water.  

If we catch this many menhaden, what happens to the predators that rely on them?

A key outcome of “SEDAR 102,” the official name of the stock assessment update, is the update to ERPs. Utilizing ERPs means that menhaden are not just managed based on that sole fishery, but also through considering the needs of predators that eat them (i.e., striped bass), and the broader ecosystem. The assessment update draws on the best available science — everything from updated menhaden life history information to new predator diet data to account for complex predator-prey relationships. Importantly, both the latest single-species and ecosystem models went through independent peer review by external experts, and were found to be scientifically credible for management.

TRCP and partners successfully advocated for ERPs to be considered in menhaden management starting in 2020. With ERPs, the idea is: if we harvest menhaden at industrial scales, even if their own stock looks healthy, we might not leave enough in the water for predators that rely on them, like striped bass, bluefish, osprey, and bluefin tuna. In plain terms: ERPs help managers answer the question, “If we catch this many menhaden, what happens to the predators that rely on them?”

Where We Stand Now

The ASMFC’s Menhaden Management Board should now approve these updated ERP values for management (a revised ERP fishing mortality target that balances menhaden harvest with the needs of striped bass and a new ERP “overfishing” threshold). The Board is gearing up to accept the new ERPs at their annual meeting on Oct. 28, and then update the coastwide total allowable catch for the 2026-2028 fishing seasons, based on those values.

The 2023 menhaden fishing mortality rate was estimated to be above the updated ERP target, meaning current menhaden fishing pressure won’t allow striped bass to rebuild to their biomass target. That tells managers that while neither stock is collapsing, the commercial menhaden fishery is removing more fish from the water than the ecosystem-based fishing target says will support striped bass rebuilding. In plain terms: menhaden are not technically “overfished” nor experiencing “overfishing,” but stripers and other predators aren’t getting all the menhaden they need to maintain healthy populations of their own.

Stripers Stand the Most to Gain (or Lose)

Rebuilding the Atlantic striped bass population isn’t just about regulating striped bass harvest. It’s also about ensuring that their main food source — Atlantic menhaden — is managed responsibly. The ERP framework is designed to link menhaden harvest levels directly to predator population outcomes. And no predator drives the ecosystem models more than striped bass.

Here’s the reality:

• Unlike menhaden, striped bass are overfished. Their spawning stock biomass remains below target levels.
• Menhaden are their primary forage. If menhaden fishing mortality levels rise above the ERP target, it reduces the availability of prey just when stripers need it most to rebuild.

So, fishing menhaden below the ERP fishing mortality target ensures sufficient forage is left in the water for striped bass rebuilding to be achieved. More food for stripers to grow, survive, and reproduce is exactly what’s needed to get the stock back on track.

Slashing the coastwide menhaden catch limit by more than 50 percent may be necessary to ensure sufficient forage for striped bass.

Why This Matters to Recreational Anglers

The ERPs give managers a roadmap to keep predators and prey in balance. But they don’t automatically trigger any fishery management changes. The coastwide menhaden quota still needs to be set, and projections by the Atlantic Menhaden Technical Committee indicate that the total allowable catch will need to be cut by over 50 percent to achieve even a 50/50 probability of not exceeding the ERP fishing mortality target next season. We know that Virginia’s menhaden reduction fishery will push for the allowable catch to remain high, but we can’t ignore what the updated ERP values indicate. The ERP target isn’t just a number on a chart — it’s a data-driven indicator that says: If we leave this much bait in the water, striped bass stand a chance to rebuild.

Remember, the new ERP values represent the best available science and rigorous peer review. Accepting these updated values is essential to:

• Maintain the integrity of the ERP framework — the very system that puts predator needs at the heart of menhaden management.
• Ensure sustainable menhaden harvests that don’t undermine the forage base critical to Atlantic predators.

If the Menhaden Management Board fails to adopt these science-based ERP values, the role of menhaden as a keystone forage species in the Atlantic ecosystem could be jeopardized — and recreational anglers will be among the first to feel the impact.

Two Possible Levers Toward One Outcome

The ASMFC has two main tools to help rebuild striped bass populations:

• Reduce striped bass fishing mortality. The Atlantic Striped Bass Board has already acted, implementing new regulations that reduced striped bass fishing mortality to a 30-year low. In other words, anglers have already made sacrifices toward a solution.
• Reduce menhaden fishing mortality. This is now the only key lever left for fisheries managers to support striped bass recovery.

If menhaden aren’t managed at or below the ERP fishing mortality target, striped bass rebuilding will remain constrained, no matter what’s done on the striped bass fishery side. Ecosystem models are complex, and uncertainty always exists in predator-prey interactions and environmental conditions. That’s why the ERP framework recommends a precautionary approach to leave a buffer of forage in the system to safeguard against uncertainty. This is the standard for managing a key forage fish — and it’s exactly what the peer-reviewed science supports.

What You Can Do

• Stay informed: When you hear debates about updates to the coastwide quota, and see conflicting information about what should drive it, know that the latest ERP fishing mortality target is the line in the sand for predator health.
• Speak up: Recreational voices matter at ASMFC and state agency meetings. Ask the Menhaden Management Board to accept the updated ERPs and set the 2026-2028 total allowable menhaden catch so there’s no more than a 50 percent chance of exceeding the ERP fishing mortality target. Anglers have a seat at this table — let’s use it.
• Think long-term: More menhaden left in the water now means more fall striper blitzes, fatter fish, and better fishing in the years ahead for us and future generations.

For more information about how to tune in to the ASMFC annual meeting Oct. 27-30, when the Menhaden Management Board will discuss changes to the ERPs and total allowable catch as a result of the stock assessment update, visit the ASMFC meeting webpage.